“Professor, are theories the basis of science?” Nakar asked.
“Where did you hear that, Nakar?” the professor asked rhetorically. Theoretical science and empirical science are very different disciplines. They follow completely different sets of rules. One must never confuse the two. While one is certain and provable, the other is all guesswork. A theory is the best guess we have based on the assumptions and information of any given time. When more information is learned, a theory will break down. This is the life and cycle of theories:
They have a birth. Scientists ask questions. Evidence is discovered. The theory breaks down. New theories take the place of the old.
“Unfortunately, when new scientific evidence and reason is ignored, the old theory becomes a religion,” the professor commented.
“Empirical science, also called observable or pure science, can be seen, tested, repeated, measured, and proven. This is a very certain and precise science. When someone makes a discovery, the discoverer writes a paper explaining it. Then other scientists repeat the experiment to verify its authenticity. However, this Mabbul is not testable, nor has anyone ever observed it. It simply hasn’t happened, yet. All we have is El’s promise.”
“Please continue, Professor.”
Professor Tur resumed where he left off. “Nakar, while empirical science can be seen, tested, repeated, measured, and proven, theoretical scientists observe the results of something and work backward. They invent a set of starting assumptions, then they apply the laws of physics, chemistry, mathematics, and all the other disciplines of imperial science.
By turning the cranks of God’s scientific laws, they watch to see if their starting assumptions yield the result they observe.”
Professor Tur continued, “Nakar, we judge the reliability of theories by the simplicity of the starting assumptions and the number of predictions that come true. In other words, the fewer the assumptions and the more predictions proven correct, the more reliable the theory.”
“Is that how theories are proven?” asked Nakar.
“Predictions are provable. Theories are not,” corrected the professor. “One can only consider the reliability of theories.”
“Is there a formula for rating the reliability of theories?” asked Nakar. “Something like, “The number of confirmed predictions divided by the number of assumptions?”
“I don’t know of any rating system for evaluating theoretical reliability, Nakar.” The professor scratched his chin thoughtfully. “Theories simply break down when new scientific evidence is discovered. It’s the natural life and death of a theory.”
Next page: A Better Theory